NBA Rodgers Ratings (Jan. 21)

1. Chicago
2. Philadelphia
3. Miami
4. OKC
5. Atlanta
6. Orlando
7. Denver
8. Portland
9. Indiana
10. Utah/San Antonio
12. Lakers
13. Dallas
14. Memphis
15. Minnesota
16. Clippers
17. Houston
18. Phoenix
19. Cleveland
20. New York/Milwaukee
22. Boston
23. Golden State
24. New Jersey
25. New Orleans
26. Sacramento
27. Toronto
28. Charlotte
29. Detroit
30. Washington

Biggest Risers: Utah +6, Memphis +4
Biggest Fallers: Lakers, Knicks, Cleveland -5

NBA Rodgers Ratings (Jan. 14)

Through games on Jan 13th

1. Philadelphia
2. Chicago
3. Atlanta (this will likely change)
4. Miami
5. Denver
6. OKC
7. Los Angeles Lakers
8. Orlando
9. San Antonio
10. Indiana
11. Portland
12. Los Angeles Clippers
13. Dallas
14. Cleveland
15. New York Knicks
16. Utah
17. Minnesota
18. Memphis
19. Houston
20. Phoenix
21. Boston
22. Milwaukee
23. Golden State
24. New Orleans
25. Toronto
26-t. New Jersey/Sacramento
28. Washington
29. Detroit
30. Charlotte

On the Rise
Dallas and the Knicks both rose 7 spots.

Falling

Toronto fell 8 places; Boston and Phoenix fell 6 each

NBA Rodgers Ratings

Whenever you begin to discuss what team will do the best in the future, you’re going beyond your data. My ratings are simply a look at what teams have done so far, taking into account their opponents, their performance in the games, and their actual win-loss records. As such, especially in the beginning of the season it will look rather different from other “Power” Rankings. Through games on 12/31.

1. Portland
2. Orlando
3. Oklahoma City
4. Atlanta
5. San Antonio
6. Philadelphia
7. Miami
8. Chicago
9. Los Angeles Lakers
10. Denver
11. Milwaukee
12. Houston
13. Memphis
14. New Orleans
15. Indiana
16. Los Angeles Clippers
17. New York
18. Golden State
19. Cleveland
20-t. Phoenix/Charlotte
22. Boston
23-t. Dallas/Toronto
25. Minnesota
26. Sacramento
27 Utah
28. Detroit
29. New Jersey
30. Washington

Philadelphia Phillies: Midway Musings

Interesting facts…

Team
The Phillies (51-30) are on pace for their most wins in a season and their best winning percentage in club history.
With at least 31 wins in the second half, the Phillies would finish their ninth consecutive season with a winning record. Their longest such stretch is ten years, from 1975 to 1984.
The Phillies have posted 92, 93, and 97 wins over the past three seasons, respectively. They are on pace to reach 90 wins again. That would give them their longest such stretch.1976-1978 is the only other back-to-back-to-back 90 win seasons the Phils have posted.

Manager
Charlie Manuel has coached 1053 games, fourth most in club history. After this season, he will be within 200 games of the top of the list.
Manuel has 595 wins as manager, which is third best. If the Phillies win 51 in the second half, Manuel will be tied for first with 646 wins.
Manuel’s .565 win percent is the best of any Phillies manager to coach at least 300 games and the best of any to coach more than one game since 1900 (Andy Cohen went 1-0 in 1960).

Batting
Shane Victorino is on pace for 100 runs. He has never accomplished this feat.
Victornio is also on pace for 16 triples, which would make him and Rollins (20 in 2007) the only two Phils to hit at least 16 since 1965.
Ryan Howard is on pace to lead the Phillies with 32 home runs. That would be Howard’s sixth consecutive 30-HR season. But it would be the second time in a row he fails to hit 35.
No one else is on pace to hit 20 home runs, which would be the first time under Manuel the Phillies do not have at least two players hit 20.
Howard is on pace for 124 RBI, which would be his fifth career 120-RBI season.

Pitching
Halladay (20-6), Hamels (18-8), and Lee (18-10) are all on pace to win at least 18 games.
They are all on pace to throw at least 220 innings and strike out at least 215 batters.
Their ERAs range from 2.40 to 2.66.
Their WHIP range from 0.96 to 1.07.
Their BAA range from .212 to .241.

Philadelphia Phillies Productivity Stat

PROD measures the number of bases a player earns divided by the number of opportunities he has had to earn them. .50 is a good number. It means that the player EARNS (so errors are out) 1/2 base every time to the plate.

Qualified Leaders:
Victorino .56
Howard .53
Rollins .48
Francisco .47
Ibanez .46

Not Qualified:
Brown .48
Mayberry .47
Utley .47
Sardinha .45

Dead Weight: Valdez .35

Top Hitting Pitchers:
Hamels .35, Lee .29, Worley .25

LA Lakers: Bang for Buck

There are numerous available metrics for measuring the worth of a sports athlete. Bang for Buck (BFB) is a simple metric derived from two objective measures. Bang is the total of points, assists, and rebounds the player has posted. Buck is the player’s salary in millions. The idea behind the stat is that a team is paying for a player’s output so one way to measure the payoff on the investment is to look at some measure of output divided by money spent. I opt for total points, assists, and boards instead of per game totals because a player who is elite when he plays but who misses a good deal of time may not be as good an investment as a reliably above average player.

Through 25 games, the Lakers’ best investments are as follows:

Matt Barnes 208.5

Derrick Caracter 178.7

Shannon Brown 155.9

Devin Ebanks 108.5

Lamar Odom 84.3

Derek Fisher 81.4

Steve Blake 55.8

Ron Artest 48.1

Pau Gasol 47.5

Kobe Bryant 35.5

Theo Ratliff 13.3

Luke Walton 6.3

Sasha Vujacic 5.3

Andrew Bynum 0.0

A quick look at the offseason moves by LA reveals a good deal of shrewdness on GM Mitch Kupchak’s part. Nabbing Matt Barnes for a pittance (1.77m) looks pretty brilliant right now. Resigning Shannon Brown and Derek Fisher look like good moves, too. Meanwhile, the rookies (Caracter and Ebanks) are already paying off reasonably well.

On the other hand, oft-injured Luke Walton and perennial pineman Sasha Vujacic look like horrible investments.

Limitations: BFB is a season-long metric, which will take into account playoff performance as well. Obviously, some players do not make the playoffs so their opportunities are limited to 82 games provided they are healthy. At the other extreme, Kobe Bryant played in 23 playoff games last season, posting more than 900 combined points, assists, and rebounds. Those games count at least equally to regular season games. I’ll be working on some thoughts for the playoffs.

Phillies Stats: Starting Pitching Numbers

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES PITCHING STATS

STARTER RATING*
Halladay 100
Oswalt 89
Hamels 88
(Happ 82)
(Moyer 78)
Figueroa 78
Kendrick 74
Blanton 67

STARTER GPA*
Halladay 3.12
Oswalt 3.00
Hamels 2.79
(Happ 2.67)
(Moyer 2.26)
Kendrick 2.17
Figuero 2.00
Blanton 1.63

STARTER RATING is like PASSER RATING in the NFL. Roughly, a score of 100 is equal to the performance of Cy Young pitchers from last season. Anything over 90 is excellent. Scores above 80 are solid. Scores in the 70s are not helping the team consistently. Scores below that are hurting the team.

STARTER GPA is a measure of consistency and excellence. Anything above a 3.0 is excellent. It means that the pitcher typically turns in ratings (see above) of 90+.

Philadelphia Phillies: Stat Update

Phillies Season Productivity Numbers*

Qualified Season Leaders

1. Jayson Werth .61
2. Ryan Howard .57
3. Chase Utley .55
4. Shane Victorino .53
5. Raul Ibanez .50
6. Carlos Ruiz .49
7. Jimmy Rollins .48
8. Wilson Valdes .40

Last 20 Games
1. Jayson Werth .70
1. Ben Francisco .70
3. Ross Gload .67
4. Shane Victorino .60
5. Raul Ibanez .57
5. Carlos Ruiz .57

Position Battle
Domonic Brown will soon be demoted to AAA, but he has had a respectable debut in the bigs. With 16 bases in 41 opportunities, Brown posted a .39 PROD. That is not a great number, but it is not horrendous either. Brown’s main area of concern is his eye at the plate. In 40 at bats, Brown struck out thirteen times while walking just once. The other outfielder who saw key at bats in the past twenty game stretch is Ben Francisco, who posted an incredible .70 PROD thanks to 7 walks, 10 hits (including 4 doubles and 2 home runs), and two stolen bases in 33 at bats. Francisco has established himself once again as a respectable starter at the major league level. For the present, he should be first off the bench even if Domonic Brown is likely to take his roster spot next season.

*PRODUCTIVITY is, roughly, a measure of the number of  bases the player EARNS per trip to the plate. A PROD of .50 seems to be quite good.

Phillies 14th Circuit Stats

Phillies: Fourteenth Circuit Pitching Stats

The Phillies’ starter went 2-1, the team managed to take three of five in the fourteenth pitching circuit of the season (games 66-70). This moves Philly to six games over .500, and three games back in the NL East. Hamels stayed hot in starting off the circuit with a B+ (89) performance, but the Phils floundered and lost a five-run lead and eventually the game. Halladay followed with an 83-point effort, but the Phils fell to some dominant pitching. Jamie Moyer tossed a 120-point gem, allowing six base runners and only one run. That triggered a three-game winning streak. Pitching was a mixed bag in games four and five of the circuit, with a terrible (but predictable) performance from Kendrick (48), and a season best 99-point performance from Joe Blanton.

The starters combined to throw 34.2 innings, making it two straight circuits in which starters recorded 100 outs or more. Halladay yielded a team high 11 hits, but the other hurlers were sharp. They yielded a total of 30 hits and walked just five (vs 29 strikeouts). This resulted in a WHIP of 1.01 and an ERA of 3.63.

Cumulative Starter Stats: 70 starts, 1327 outs recorded, 306 Ks vs. 112 BB, 443 Hits, 199 ER, 4.05 ERA, and a 1.25 WHIP.

Circuit Ace: Joe Blanton tossed his first A+ game of the season, but Jamie Moyer’s 120-point gem shines brightest. It’s Moyer’s second-highest rated game of the season, and his second straight A+ after an abysmal -2 performance in the 12th circuit.

Phillies: Day Off Recap

Travis Rodgers

The Phillies have a day off, so here are updated stats.

Explanation of Stats

Productivity: this is a measure of how many bases the player EARNS per appearance at the plate. Getting on base is important, but getting bases any way you can is, too. So people who get xbh and steal bases are rewarded. From preliminary analysis (I’ve been messing with this stat for about 4 years now), a 0.5 seems to be pretty good. It means that a player who comes to bat 4 times will earn two bases in the game.

Pitching Rating: This is a stat for starting pitchers that is modeled on the Passer Rating stat in the NFL. A rating of 100 is equal to Cy Young consideration. It looks like an 80+ is getting the job done.

Productivity among qualified players (134 at bats):

1. Werth .61
2. Utley .56
3. Victorino .55
4. Howard .54
5. Ibanez .49
6. Polanco / Ruiz .471

Recent Activity

The bats are again hot in Philadelphia. Among starters, Ryan Howard led the way with a .96 PROD over the pat five games. Chase Utley (.70), Jayson Werth (.63), and Raul Ibanez (.63) all performed well. In fact, both Victorino and Carlos Ruiz posted .55 PRODs, and all-but-starter Wilson Valdez posted a .50, meaning that all starters except Placido Polanco (.33) were at or above the .50 mark. On the bench, Ross Gload was the star with a 1.33 PROD.

Position Battle

Jimmy Rollins’s absence has certainly hurt the Phillies. His .75 PROD in the games he has played is remarkable. Nor does this stat does not take into account his remarkable contributions on the defensive side. Still, Wilson Valdez has played well on both sides of the ball, rolling along with a .40 PROD.  In 17 opportunities, he managed 12 bases, to pull his PROD to a season high (.40). Not remarkable, but still solid. By comparison, Rollins boasts a career .53 PROD and elevated that number to .61 in his MVP campaign.

Starting Pitching Rating

1. Halladay 97
2. Happ 87
3. Hamels 84
4. Figueroa 78
5. Moyer 77
6. Kendrick 74
7. Blanton 58