LA Lakers Season Prospectus (1 of 3)

LA Lakers Season Prospectus
The Lakers look to begin the defense of their title in less than a week. Before the Finals, however, are the playoffs. And before the playoffs is the grind of an 82-game season. What happens during those 82 games is often a cloudy matter, a crisscrossed pattern of variables. So what follows is one man’s attempt to shed some light into the gloom: a list of players, divided into three tiers [first one only right now], featuring stat projections and notes about player development.

THE STARTING FIVE
Derek Fisher – Point Guard
Last season, Fisher did much of what was expected from him. Very nice numbers from the arc, the charity stripe, and in terms of taking care of the ball were set against a subpar overall shooting percent and shoddy defensive results. Last season looked to be Fisher’s final as the starter in Los Angeles. He has once again earned that distinction, however, and enters the regular season as the main man. His minute should dip to his lowest in years, and he may lose his starting job at some point, but he will be a big part of this club.
2008/09 Projections: 10.7 ppg, 3.0 apg, 2.3 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 9.9 ppg, 3.2 apg, 2.3 rpg
Accuracy: 95%
2009/10 Projections: 80 games, 26.5 minutes, 8.5 points, 3.0 assists, 2.1 rebounds

Kobe Bryant – Shooting Guard
Kobe did essentially what all fans thought he would. He tightened up his game, spent a bit more time on the defensive end, improved his ast/to ratio, and obliterated any memory of the suggestion that he cannot make his teammates better. Bryant is now 31 years old, sporting a ton of mileage, but he is in fantastic shape. The ball should be in his hands a bit less this year, allowing him to devote more time to moving without the ball, defending, and rebounding. One question mark will be Kobe’s outside shooting, which is something he has struggled to do well when catching and shooting, as opposed to working for his own shot.
2008/09 Projections: 26.5 ppg, 5.2 apg, 5.9 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 26.8 ppg, 4.9 apg, 5.2 rpg
Accuracy: 94%
2009/10 Projections: 80 games, 37.3 minutes, 26.5 points, 4.9 assists, 5.7 rebounds

Ron Artest – Small Forward
Artest brings an intriguing mix of skills to the Lakers’ starting lineup. He can defend, shoot from distance, drive to the rim, rebound, pass, and dribble. Historically, he has struggled in terms of shot selection and keeping his cool. Throughout the preseason, it seems he has had difficulties picking times to be aggressive. Artest makes the Lakers a formidable defensive team, but his impact on the offense is every bit as important. He may be more a distributor and open-three sniper than he has in years past.

2009/10 Projections: 65 games, 36.7 minutes, 16.3 points, 3.9 assists, 5.5 rebounds

Pau Gasol – Power Forward
Gasol has truly defied expectations since coming to the Lakers. The first question was whether he would be able to be a scoring force on fewer looks. He has, by increasing his FG% from 51% before coming to LA to 59% and 57%, respectively, in his two seasons in LA. After his rebounds dipped to a dangerously low level for a Power Forward, Gasol showed dominant rebounding last season, posting the second highest total of his career, and averaging nearly a double double. A cause for concern, however, is Gasol’s lack of rest of late. Since a long playoff run two seasons ago, the Olympics, another long season, and playing for his home country during the offseason, Gasol has shown signs of wear. A hamstring injury currently has his status in doubt for the first game of the regular season.
2008/09 Projections: 18.6 points, 3.3 assists, 7.4 rebounds

2008/09 Actual: 18.9 points, 3.5 assists, 9.6 rebounds

Accuracy: 90%
2009/10 Projections: 73 games, 36.5 minutes, 19.0 points, 4.0 assists, 9.4 rebounds

Andrew Bynum – Center
While Bynum has put to bed any fears that he is a bust, he has struggled to answer other charges, including his history of injuries and his love of offense and seeming disinterest toward rebound and defense. He could simply take or leave a good night on the glass so long as he gets his touches. That could be a problem going forward. But after tying for the team lead in scoring during the preseason, and towering over most opposition, Bynum’s offensive prowess is going to push those questions to the back of people’s minds, at least for some time.
2008/09 Projections: 13.4 ppg, 1.8 apg, 9.8 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 14.3 ppg, 1.4 apg, 8.0 rpg
Accuracy: 84%
2009/10 Projections: 63 games, 29.5 minutes, 15.1 points, 1.3 assists, 8.1 rebounds

Benching Quinn a Win-Win Situation: A Conspiracy Theory

Benching Quinn a Win-Win Situation: A Conspiracy Theory
With Brady Quinn at the helm, the Cleveland Browns bumbled to a 0-3 start on the season, averaging 9.7 points per game while surrendering 31.7. With his passer rating hovering just north of 60, Quinn certainly had not inspired much confidence. After ten quarters running the show, he was promptly benched. One might think that Quinn just sucked, so because being benched is a natural fate for sucking, there is nothing out of the usual here. This is, however, uninspired thinking.

Theory #1: Money-Saving Option
If Brady Quinn fails to take 70% of the team’s offensive snaps on the season, the value of his contract falls by $11m. Those are 11 million reasons to sit Quinn now. Interestingly, this move says nothing about whether Quinn is the face of the franchise going forward. With the trade deadline looming, the Browns can move Anderson after showing he still has it (whatever “it” is, in his case). That would make Quinn the main man and assuage him in the long run, but would save the franchise a ton of money and possibly earn them a decent draft pick.

Theory #2: Job-Saving Option
0-3 is as bad as you can be through three games. But Cleveland’s first three opponents had a combined record of 9-0, including 6-0 in games not against Cleveland. Over the next three games, the Browns would face teams with a combined 4-5 record. In Week 4, some of this has changed. The Broncos won while the Ravens fell to the Pats. The Steelers play this evening, the Bills lost, and the Bengals beat the Browns. So this makes the Quinn-led Browns’ opponents 10-1. Anderson-led Browns’ opponents will be 5-6, pending the Steelers’ result. The point here is that the Browns started off facing teams that are good or were playing very well. In games 4 through 6, they play only one good team, and the Steelers are not exactly playing well right now.

But good or bad opponent, Quinn was bad. After all, at the time of his benching, Quinn’s Rating was an absolutely abysmal 62.9. His yards per attempt was a pathetic 5.4. Anderson’s numbers, in recent history, are signficantly better. Right? Actually, over his last 15 games, Anderson’s Rating is 62.1. His yards per attempt is 5.6. So what gives? It seems that if Anderson could win any of these next three games (and he could), then so could Quinn.

The conspiracy theorist might think that Mangini could pull the QB switch, attribute the newfound turnaround (when the Browns inevitably win one or two of the next two games) to the shrewd roster move, and prove that Mangini really is not incompetent.

So there you have it. Two nice conspiracy theories as to why Quinn was benched. Of course, there are other less interesting reasons why Anderson got the nod, but it is far from clear that one or both these takes are far off the mark.