Numbers Highlight Artest’s Contributions

Numbers Highlight Artest’s Contributions

Travis J. Rodgers

It is easy to look at Ron Artest’s offensive numbers and not be terribly impressed. The 12 points per game is the lowest average the Lakers’ offseason acquisition has posted since the 01/02 season. Moreover, his free throw percentage (57%) and steals per game (1.4) are the worst of his career. Decent rebounding and a career-high assist rate save the stat line, but certainly fail to make the numbers leap out at the reader.

 

Defensively, however, Artest’s impact is evident both on the court and in the (extended) box score. On November 1^st, after Joe Johnson started out on a tear, scoring 18 points (on 7 for 8 shooting) in the first quarter, Artest took the initiative, switching defensive assignments with Kobe. With Artest applying smothering defense, Johnson hit just 1 of the 8 shots he took the rest of the way. No individual player has really gotten to the Lakers offensively, with Kevin Durant’s 28 points, which represent a season high for an opponent against the Lakers, coming on 24 shots.

 

Artest has embraced the role of defender first, deferring to his teammates offensively (his shots per minute rate–at .27– is significantly lower than his career average of .38). In this role, he has held opposing Small Forwards to 33.1 eFG%, has forced a 1:1 ast/to ratio, and has surrendered just 16.5 points per 48 minutes. His opponent has put up an 8.6 PER. This has helped the Lakers maintain a +7.3 PER advantage over opposing SFs (second best positional advantage behind +9.9 at Shooting Guard). By contrast, last season, opposing SFs averaged 48.6 eFG%, posted a 3.6/2.8 ast/to ratio, averaged 20.7 points per 48 minutes, and finished with a 14.9 PER. While these numbers are all solid to good, Artest’s defensive performance has been downright dominant. And it appears as if the mindset is contagious.

 

As a team, the Lakers have allowed only two opponents to reach 100 points on the season, and are allowing an average of 96.5 over their last four games. Their points allowed now stand at 97.4 (this, with two games that have gone to overtime), 11th best in the NBA. The Lakers have held their opponents to poor shooting percentages as well. They are currently 7th best in FG% allowed (43.2), 5th best in 3pt% allowed (30.2), and have created the 4th most TO (17.0). So far Artest looks to be leading by example. And that is good in Los Angeles.

 

*PER, eFG, and positional stats courtesy of 82games.com

**Team statistics courtesy of Yahoo! sports

LA Lakers Season Prospectus (1 of 3)

LA Lakers Season Prospectus
The Lakers look to begin the defense of their title in less than a week. Before the Finals, however, are the playoffs. And before the playoffs is the grind of an 82-game season. What happens during those 82 games is often a cloudy matter, a crisscrossed pattern of variables. So what follows is one man’s attempt to shed some light into the gloom: a list of players, divided into three tiers [first one only right now], featuring stat projections and notes about player development.

THE STARTING FIVE
Derek Fisher – Point Guard
Last season, Fisher did much of what was expected from him. Very nice numbers from the arc, the charity stripe, and in terms of taking care of the ball were set against a subpar overall shooting percent and shoddy defensive results. Last season looked to be Fisher’s final as the starter in Los Angeles. He has once again earned that distinction, however, and enters the regular season as the main man. His minute should dip to his lowest in years, and he may lose his starting job at some point, but he will be a big part of this club.
2008/09 Projections: 10.7 ppg, 3.0 apg, 2.3 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 9.9 ppg, 3.2 apg, 2.3 rpg
Accuracy: 95%
2009/10 Projections: 80 games, 26.5 minutes, 8.5 points, 3.0 assists, 2.1 rebounds

Kobe Bryant – Shooting Guard
Kobe did essentially what all fans thought he would. He tightened up his game, spent a bit more time on the defensive end, improved his ast/to ratio, and obliterated any memory of the suggestion that he cannot make his teammates better. Bryant is now 31 years old, sporting a ton of mileage, but he is in fantastic shape. The ball should be in his hands a bit less this year, allowing him to devote more time to moving without the ball, defending, and rebounding. One question mark will be Kobe’s outside shooting, which is something he has struggled to do well when catching and shooting, as opposed to working for his own shot.
2008/09 Projections: 26.5 ppg, 5.2 apg, 5.9 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 26.8 ppg, 4.9 apg, 5.2 rpg
Accuracy: 94%
2009/10 Projections: 80 games, 37.3 minutes, 26.5 points, 4.9 assists, 5.7 rebounds

Ron Artest – Small Forward
Artest brings an intriguing mix of skills to the Lakers’ starting lineup. He can defend, shoot from distance, drive to the rim, rebound, pass, and dribble. Historically, he has struggled in terms of shot selection and keeping his cool. Throughout the preseason, it seems he has had difficulties picking times to be aggressive. Artest makes the Lakers a formidable defensive team, but his impact on the offense is every bit as important. He may be more a distributor and open-three sniper than he has in years past.

2009/10 Projections: 65 games, 36.7 minutes, 16.3 points, 3.9 assists, 5.5 rebounds

Pau Gasol – Power Forward
Gasol has truly defied expectations since coming to the Lakers. The first question was whether he would be able to be a scoring force on fewer looks. He has, by increasing his FG% from 51% before coming to LA to 59% and 57%, respectively, in his two seasons in LA. After his rebounds dipped to a dangerously low level for a Power Forward, Gasol showed dominant rebounding last season, posting the second highest total of his career, and averaging nearly a double double. A cause for concern, however, is Gasol’s lack of rest of late. Since a long playoff run two seasons ago, the Olympics, another long season, and playing for his home country during the offseason, Gasol has shown signs of wear. A hamstring injury currently has his status in doubt for the first game of the regular season.
2008/09 Projections: 18.6 points, 3.3 assists, 7.4 rebounds

2008/09 Actual: 18.9 points, 3.5 assists, 9.6 rebounds

Accuracy: 90%
2009/10 Projections: 73 games, 36.5 minutes, 19.0 points, 4.0 assists, 9.4 rebounds

Andrew Bynum – Center
While Bynum has put to bed any fears that he is a bust, he has struggled to answer other charges, including his history of injuries and his love of offense and seeming disinterest toward rebound and defense. He could simply take or leave a good night on the glass so long as he gets his touches. That could be a problem going forward. But after tying for the team lead in scoring during the preseason, and towering over most opposition, Bynum’s offensive prowess is going to push those questions to the back of people’s minds, at least for some time.
2008/09 Projections: 13.4 ppg, 1.8 apg, 9.8 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 14.3 ppg, 1.4 apg, 8.0 rpg
Accuracy: 84%
2009/10 Projections: 63 games, 29.5 minutes, 15.1 points, 1.3 assists, 8.1 rebounds

Unfinished Business in La-La Land

<b>UNFINISHED BUSINESS IN LA-LA LAND</b>

After winning the NBA title, the Lakers faced the possible loss of four players. Two of these issues have been resolved: Kobe Bryant decided not to exercise his early termination option and Trevor Ariza went to Houston. Two more are outstanding: Lamar Odom is eyeing a contract in the neighborhood of $9m per season and Shannon Brown’s status is at present unknown. He is either a restricted free agent (in which case the Lakers have the opportunity to match any offer sheet he receives) or an unrestricted free agent (in which case the Lakers lack that option). One of the biggest splashes in the Free Agency Period came when once Defensive Player of the Year Ron Artest decided to join the Lakers. This move compensates for Ariza’s exodus. If the goal is another championship, however, the Lakers cannot be finished making moves.

<b>Priority: Re-sign Lamar Odom.</b> Yes, he is inconsistent. Yes, he has had some injury concerns (although they seem to be a thing of the past). The fact is that Odom is able to play the 2, 3, or 4, and can guard the 1 (depending on the 1) through 4. That is a skill set that is difficult to find in itself. On top of that, he is a dominant rebounder, a respectable scorer, a very good passer, and developed an intermittent stroke from distance late last season. He is in his prime and must be re-signed. Quite simply, without Odom, the Lakers would lack the depth necessary to win another title.

<b>Potential Solution:</b> Short of Lamar Odom, there are not many reasonable options for the Lakers. In-house “options” include Luke Walton and Adam Morrison. While Walton brings a lesser degree of most the skills Odom possesses, the dropoff from Odom to Walton in terms of athleticism and consistency is troubling. Adam Morrison, when he grows up, wants to be Luke Walton with better shooting ability. Barring borderline supernatural progress in the Summer League, Morrison figures to wear a suit and tie for most of next season. Free Agent options include Grant Hill, a fantastic fit for the triangle, but a poor shooter from beyond the arc. Pay attention to the difference between Odom’s career (31%) and last season (32%) three-point accuracy and Grant Hill’s (28% and 32%, respectively). The difference is not huge, but it is part of a larger puzzle. Remember: the Lakers sacrificed Vladimir Radmanovic (38% career, 41% for the Lakers last season) and Trevor Ariza (30% career, 32% last season, and 48% in the playoffs).

<b>Second: More bigs.</b> The Lakers must find a way to develop a reliable backup Center. Of course, the team’s flexibility allows Gasol to shift to the 5, Odom to enter the starting lineup at the 4, Artest at the 3, and Kobe at the 2; but lest we get ahead of ourselves, there really is no backup for Pau if Bynum is out for whatever reason (fouls or injuries; take your pick). DJ Mbenga may be a stopgap, but unless he develops an offensive game, he is nothing more.

<b>Potential Solution:</b> No idea, to be honest. There are some veteran bigs available who are intriguing (Rasheed Wallace, for instance). Yet there is no obvious fit as there was in the case of bringing aboard Artest. Inviting Sheed to join forces with Artest might be a foolhardy move, given the volatile situation that would create. Perhaps the Lakers will tempt fate and run with minimal Center depth. Perhaps someone will step up during the Summer.

<b>Third: Groom a point guard for the future.</b> Derek Fisher is perhaps the point guard of the present. He is aging, and looked awkward for a good part of the late regular season, but he straightened things out just in time. Jordan Farmar is inconsistent and has not shown the progress one would like to see from him. In short, there is no compelling reason to think that he is the point guard of the future. Interestingly, Shannon Brown is probably most what Phil Jackson is looking for in an initiator. Unfortunately, he is a free agent about whose status we have heard very little.

<b>Potential Solutions:</b> The Lakers appear to be enamored of Nate Robinson. It is unclear what sort of deal could land Robinson, but although not a pure Point, he is a solid shooter (44-33-84 last season) whose only bad number is 5 feet, 9 inches.

Did Bynum Foul Out?

During the Lakers vs. Jazz game Thursday evening (game 3), Andrew Bynum found himself in foul trouble early. He had three fouls at the half, in only 4 or 5 minutes. He picked up a quick foul later in the third, and then another. TNT showed a graphic that stated “Fouled out – 4 points”.  But it’s not clear that he did foul out. That would be a strange wrinkle if it is in fact true.