Lidge Closes, Lidge Loses

“Closer” is very close to “Loser”. Especially when the Closer is Brad Lidge. Entering the game Wednesday evening, Lidge had just a 1-run cushion. As he has done a major league leading 11 times this season, Lidge blew the save and eventually took the loss. His line stands at an utterly unimpressive 0 wins, 8 losses, and an ERA of 7.48. He is one of only two ML pitchers to record 8 losses this season without starting a game. The other, Matt Capp, plays for a team with 94 losses. The Phillies have just 63. What’s more, Lidge’s 0 wins vs. 8 losses means he is the only pitcher with at least seven decisions to fail to win a game. Finally, his ERA is nearly twice that of his team’s overall (4.07).

A previous column here contained a month-by-month look at Lidge’s performance. To continue that trend, Lidge finished up August with a 70% conversion rate (7/10 saves converted), giving him his second most saves in a month and most in consecutive months (with 13 between July and August). His ERA dropped a tad to 6.75, the WHIP came down to 1.50, and his BAA was a borderline respectable .279. All in all, the July-August stretch was Lidge’s finest hour on the season, seeing Lidge lock down 13 of 16 save opportunities. He struck out 22 in 21.2 innings, posted a 6.33 ERA, and opponents batted right at .250. The fact is that if Lidge were good for those unimpressive numbers going forward, a far cry from what they were last season, the Phillies would have to feel decent (not great) about their prospects in the playoffs.

The problem is that Lidge is nowhere near that player right now. Another atrocious outing Wednesday evening saw Lidge throw away a lead and eventually lose the game. He allowed four baserunners and recorded just two outs. His conversion rate slipped to 4/6 (67%) in September, the ERA has skyrocketed to 10.80, his WHIP is a ridiculous 2.85, and opposing hitters have batted .394 against him. Those numbers simply cannot get it done in the playoffs. Teams must salivate when they see Lidge enter the game. All this bodes quite ill for the Phillies, who wasted a six-run performance and a respectable start from Hamels (4 ER in 7 IP), and failed to close in on the division championship.

Your Philadelphia Phillies’ Closer, Bad Lidge (sic)

Your Philadelphia Phillies’ Closer, Bad Lidge

The Overall Numbers
25 saves, 9 blown saves (74%), 7.33 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, .299 BAA. With the league wide average at around 70% of saves converted, Lidge’s save conversion rate is about the only thing that looks good in his line. He is not striking out as many hitters as he has in the past, is walking a ton, and is serving up home runs regularly.

Consistently Bad
A month-by-month look reveals that Lidge has never really come close to getting things together. And while things were bad in the past, they may be about as dire as they have been. There seems little reason to think he will snap out of this funk any time soon.

April: Lidge was 4/5 (80%) in save opportunities. That is about where the good news stopped. He allowed 3 HR in 8.2 innings, yielded a 7.27 ERA, a 1.85 WHIP, and opposing batters hit .297. Phillies fans gave him a pass because he had been utterly dominant the previous season. It seemed this dark cloud would pass. It did not.

May: Lidge converted 8 of 11 save opportunities (73%), which was solid. He failed to whiff a batter per inning with 14 in 16 IP. His ERA and BAA crept up to 7.98 and .317, respectively. His WHIP dipped by 1/100th of a point to 1.84. Even with that conversion rate, Lidge tossed one of his worst months with the Phillies. It turns out he was dealing with an injury. So June crept around and it appeared things would be sorted out.

June: Lidge pitched just 4 innings in the month, but was rocked to the tune of 10 base runners (2.50 WHIP), a .353 BAA, and a pathetic 2:4 K:BB ratio. He saved 2 games and blew 2 others (50%). His ERA was somehow the best of the season at 6.75. He was bad before going on the DL (1/3 on save chances, took a Loss) and bad when he came back (2 ER in 1.1 IP, 0 Ks, 3 BB). Fans began seriously to fret. It looked as if the time on the DL did not solve the problem.

July: Lidge posted what was without a doubt his best month of the season. He converted all 6 save opportunities, held hitters to a .222 BAA, and struck out 13 in 10.2 innings. Unfortunately, his WHIP (while his best monthly number) was 1.41 and his ERA (again, his best) was 5.91. These are just terrible numbers. Still, it is difficult to complain when a guy converts all of his save chances. Lidge purchased himself some time.

August: Things have been disastrous. Lidge has converted 5 of 8 opportunities (63%), has seen his worst ERA in a month (8.31) and his WHIP (1.85) and BAA (.324) are both pathetic.

Another Closer?
The Phillies do not have any great options on hand. Ryan Madson, Clay Condrey, Chad Durbin, and Jack Taschner have combined to save 7 games, but they have blown 7 saves. That’s a 50% conversion rate. A playoff team simply must hold games when they have the chance to hold them.

Madson, who would seem a good bet to assume closing duties, is deadly as a setup man (2.95 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .232 BAA). He is shaky in closing (4/8 in save opportunities).

J.C. Romero has pitched well (2.87 ERA, .208 BAA), but has been on the DL most of the year since serving an early season suspension. He has not pitched since mid-July. He has converted just 4 of 27 save opportunities in his career.

Brett Myers is currently on the DL, but he has pitched well in a recent rehab start (hitting 93-94 MPH in a shutout inning). He was a very good starter in the early going on this season, but it is thought unlikely that he will be able to build the stamina to reclaim a starting spot. As a reliever in 2007, he went 5-5, posted a 2.87 ERA, and converted 21 of 24 opportunities (88%). Myers may be the Phillies’ best bet to find a replacement at the major league level and within the organization.

Phils Staff Ace: 36 Games In

STAFF (Season)
Games: 36
IP: 196.2 (5.46/game)
WHIP: 1.63 (321)
BAA: .305 (244/800)
Quality Starts: 15
ERA: 6.36 (139)
Record: 11-11

-It has not always been pretty, but the Phils have settled down a bit and seem to have at least two good, solid starters in the rotation. The move from Chan Ho Park to Happ should be good in the long term. Meanwhile, Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer both continue to struggle. Despite all the turmoil (a terrible start, Hamels’s injuries), the Phils’ starters are 11-11 and are trimming down the ERA, BAA, and WHIP.

Individual Stats
Inning Pitched
Myers 50.0
Blanton 39.1
Moyer 35.1
Hamels 34.1
Park 33.1
Carpenter 4.1

WHIP
Myers 1.40 (70)
Hamels 1.40 (51)
Blanton 1.68 (66)
Park 1.74 (58)
Moyer 1.84 (65)
Carpenter 2.54 (11)

BAA
Myers .267 (51/191)
Hamels .296 (42/142)
Blanton .305 (50/164)
Park .308 (41/133)
Moyer .344 (52/151)
Carpenter .421 (8/19)

Quality Starts
Myers 5
Blanton 3 Hamels 3
Moyer 2 Park 2
Carpenter 0

ERA

Myers 4.50 (25)
Hamels 4.95 (20)
Park 7.29 (27)
Blanton 6.86 (30)
Moyer 8.15 (32)
Carpenter 10.38 (5)

Team Record
Carpenter 1-0
Park 5-2
Moyer 4-3 Blanton 4-3
Myers 4-4
Hamels 3-4

W/L Record
Carpenter 1-0
Myers 3-2
Moyer 3-3
Hamels 2-2
Park 1-1
Blanton 1-3

OVERALL
*Myers 12.5: Easily Philadelphia’s most consistent pitcher so far.
Hamels 22.0: ERA on April 10th: 17.18; ERA now: 4.96.
Blanton 24.0: Phils keep finding ways to overcome Blanton’s poor games.
Park 27.5: Sent to the pen after giving up 5 ER in 1.1 innings.
Moyer 28.0: 0-2, 19 ER in last three starts.
Carpenter 32.0: Did just enough to get the W

Phils Staff Ace: Circuit Five

Hamels is on the mend, so he misses a start. The rotation shifts forward. Blanton and Myers have both shown good strides. Hamels cannot catch a break. Moyer keeps doing his thing. Park might be sent to the pen.Circuit 5:

STAFF (CIRCUIT)

Games: 5
IP: 27.2
WHIP: 1.84 (51)
BAA: .330 (36/109)
Quality Starts: 2
ERA: 6.83 (21)
Record: 2-2

STAFF (Season)
Games: 24
IP: 129.1
WHIP: 1.72 (222)
BAA: .320 (172/538)
Quality Starts: 7
ERA: 6.54 (94)
Record: 6-8

Individual
Inning Pitched
Myers 37.0
Moyer 28.2
Blanton 26.1
Park 20.0
Hamels 17.1

WHIP

Myers 1.57 (58)

Moyer 1.64 (47)
Blanton 1.75 (46)
Hamels 1.79 (31)
Park 1.95 (39)

BAA
Myers .293 (43/147)
Moyer .316 (37/117)
Blanton .330 (37/112)
Park .346 (28/81)
Hamels .365 (27/74)

Quality Starts
Blanton 3 Myers 3
Moyer 2
Hamels 0 Park 0

ERA
Myers 5.35 (22)
Moyer 5.65 (18)
Blanton 6.84 (20)
Hamels 7.27 (14)
Park 9.00 (20)

Team Record
Moyer 4-1
Park 3-1
Blanton 3-2
Myers 3-3
Hamels 1-3

W/L Record
Moyer 3-1
Myers 2-2
Blanton 1-2
Park 0-1
Hamels 0-2

OVERALL
Myers 11.5: Steps up to spell Hamels, has three quality starts in last four starts.

Moyer 13.0: Good run support, no disasters have kept him looking good.
Blanton 19.5: Jekyll and Hyde, has three quality starts and two miserable games.
Park 28.5: Last chance to fight off Happ? Has not pitched one good game.
Hamels 32.5: Last two appearances: 7.2 IP, 8 Hits, 10 Ks, 2 BB, 2 ER

Howard Matches Schmidt

That did not take too long. With a bases-loaded swing Monday night against former Phil Kyle Lohse, Ryan Howard slugged his seventh grand slam of his career, pulling even with Mike Schmidt. The two are now tied for the club record.

The home run was Howard’s fifth of the season and the 182nd of his career. It also ran his season total to 19 RBI and 518 in his career. Those numbers are a long way off the club records, both held by Schmidt, but Howard continues to do things no Philly has done before, as he takes aim at a fourth consecutive 40 HR, 130 RBI season.

Howard also singled in a previous at bat. The two hits has pushed his batting average to .293 for the moment. After hitting just .251 last season, that is a welcome sign from the big man.

Phillies PROD (Productivity): April

PHILLIES PRODUCTIVITY NUMBERS, APRIL

Travis Rodgers

The productivity number (PROD) is simply a measure of the number of bases a player is able to earn per trip to the plate. It comes apart from SLG in some instances. Consider Wade Boggs (career SLG of .44, career PROD .52) vs. Rickey Henderson (career SLG .42, career PROD .53). Henderson’s ability to create bases on the base path was far superior to Boggs’s, and this typically translates to more runs produced. In fact, Henderson produced 3 more runs per 100 trips to the plate than Boggs did.  A PROD of 0.50 is a good number. Higher is better.

Starters

Ibanez .79
Utley .72
Howard .57
Victorino .55
Werth .54
Feliz .54
Rollins .33

Reserves

Stairs .80
Marson .40
Bruntlett .39
Coste .34
Dobbs .20

PITCHERS
STARTERS (Higher is better, 0.50 is still good)
Moyer .46
Park .43
Myers .39
Blanton .34
Hamels .31

RELIEVERS
Condrey .73
Madson .73
Happ .65
Durbin .54
Taschner .53
Lidge .48
Eyre .35

Schmidt in Howard’s Sights

Ryan Howard, the Phils’ big lefty, has put up some impressive offensive numbers during his three full seasons in the bigs. He has hit at least 47 home runs and driven in at least 136 rbi in each of the past three seasons. After setting the club’s single season mark for home runs in 2006 with 58, he added 47 and 48 for good measure. His 181 home runs rank him 10th all-time among Phillies.

With a grand slam on Monday, his fourth shot of the season, Howard moved to within one of the club mark for grand slams. Mike Schmidt, the Hall of Fame third baseman, holds the club mark with 7. Howard seemingly has a long, long time to chase Schmidt. So while he slowly bides his time, moving up the club’s home run list, keep an eye out for the grand slam lead. It’s within reach.

Utley Joins Phils Greats: 500/500

Travis J. Rodgers
It’s not stolen bases and home runs, but Chase Utley has joined a fairly select group of Philadelphia hitters by topping the 500 mark in both runs scored and runs batted in. On April 19th, a game after reaching 500 RBI, Utley hit a solo home run to reach 500 runs in his career. With two RBI Sunday against the Marlins, Utley moved to 504 runs and 508 RBI.

Utley is currently 35th in club history with 504 runs. The next few hitters are grouped together fairly closely, so even a so-so season should see him leapfrog eleven hitters, landing him in 24th place (he would need 557 to accomplish this feat). With 508 RBI, Utley is currently 28th on the career list for Phils, behind teammates Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins. Ahead of the trio of current Phils is Scott Rolen, with 559. Twenty three Phillies have reached this mileston before Utley.

The next stop, 600/600, is noticeably more select. Dick Allen, Johnny Callison, Granny Hamner, Willie Jones, Cy Williams, Greg Luzinski, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Sherry Magee, Sam Thompson, Chuck Klein, Del Ennis, Ed Dalahanty, and Mike Schmidt are the fourteen members of that club, although Jimmy Rollins is working his way there as well. Rollins has 852 runs scored and is stalled at 549 RBI.

Philadelphia Phillies Productivity Ratings

A productivity rating is a measure of the number of bases a player is able to generate for himself, whenever it is within his power to do so. That sounds a bit abstract. In concrete terms, it is a measure of how many bases does the player earn per trip to the plate, including stolen bases, walks (intentional or otherwise), etc. A good rating is 0.5, meaning that the player earns 1/2 base per trip to the plate. So in a game where the player comes to the plate four times, the player will typically earn a trip to second base or will earn a trip to first base twice. Notice that this does not mean that he will not score in an average game. If the next player up to bat averages 0.5, and so forth, then if the players both double, the first player will score a run.

Regulars (3.1 pa/ team’s games)

Raul Ibanez (.79)

Chase Utley (.68)

Jayson Werth (.57)

Ryan Howard (.55)

Pedro Feliz (.51)

Shane Victorino (.45)

Jimmy Rollins (.25)

Reserves (.62 pa/team’s games)

Matt Stairs (.91)

Lou Marson (.44)

Chris Coste (.42)

Carlos Ruiz (.42)

Eric Bruntlett (.40)

Greg Dobbs (.18)

Phils Staf Ace: Circuit 2

Here follow the Staff Ace Numbers along with brief explanations of the movement. Each pitcher receives a rank from 1-5 for each area. These category ranks are totaled. Lower numbers are better. The best score is a 7 while the worst is a 35. This is simply a measure  who deserves to be called the staff’s ace.

STAFF (This Circuit)

Games: 5

IP: 28.1^

WHIP: 1.52^ (43)

BAA: .302^ (35/116)

Quality Starts: 1^

ERA: 6.67^ (21)

Record: 2-1^ S

TAFF (Season)

Games: 9

IP: 47 W

HIP: 1.83 (86)

BAA: .346 (71/205)

Quality Starts: 1

ERA: 8.23 (43)

Record 2-4

Individual

Inning Pitched Myers 13.0* Moyer 11.0 Blanton 10.0 Hamels 8.0 Park 3.1

WHIP Myers 1.08* Moyer 1.82 Blanton 2.00 Hamels 2.17 Park 3.00

BAA Myers .235* Moyer .340 (16/) Blanton .405 (17/42) Park .412 (7/17) Hamels .422 (19/45)

Quality Starts Blanton 1 Hamels 0 Moyer 0 Myers 0 Park 0

ERA Myers 5.54* Moyer 6.55 Blanton 9.00 Hamels 11.17 Park 14.52

Team Record Park 1-0 Blanton 1-1 Moyer 1-1 Myers 1-1 Hamels 0-2

W/L Record Moyer 1-1 Myers 1-1 Park 0-0 Hamels 0-1 Blanton 0-1

OVERALL

*Myers 12.5: The closest thing to consistent, solid pitching the Phils have seen from a starter so far.

Moyer 16.5: Moyer has not been good, but he has gone at least five innings in both outings.

Blanton 20.5: Won a game he should have lost, lost a game he should have won.

Park 27.5: Far from effective in his debut.

Hamels 30.0: Hamels was better in every way in his second outing, but 3 HR killed him.