Benching Quinn a Win-Win Situation: A Conspiracy Theory

Benching Quinn a Win-Win Situation: A Conspiracy Theory
With Brady Quinn at the helm, the Cleveland Browns bumbled to a 0-3 start on the season, averaging 9.7 points per game while surrendering 31.7. With his passer rating hovering just north of 60, Quinn certainly had not inspired much confidence. After ten quarters running the show, he was promptly benched. One might think that Quinn just sucked, so because being benched is a natural fate for sucking, there is nothing out of the usual here. This is, however, uninspired thinking.

Theory #1: Money-Saving Option
If Brady Quinn fails to take 70% of the team’s offensive snaps on the season, the value of his contract falls by $11m. Those are 11 million reasons to sit Quinn now. Interestingly, this move says nothing about whether Quinn is the face of the franchise going forward. With the trade deadline looming, the Browns can move Anderson after showing he still has it (whatever “it” is, in his case). That would make Quinn the main man and assuage him in the long run, but would save the franchise a ton of money and possibly earn them a decent draft pick.

Theory #2: Job-Saving Option
0-3 is as bad as you can be through three games. But Cleveland’s first three opponents had a combined record of 9-0, including 6-0 in games not against Cleveland. Over the next three games, the Browns would face teams with a combined 4-5 record. In Week 4, some of this has changed. The Broncos won while the Ravens fell to the Pats. The Steelers play this evening, the Bills lost, and the Bengals beat the Browns. So this makes the Quinn-led Browns’ opponents 10-1. Anderson-led Browns’ opponents will be 5-6, pending the Steelers’ result. The point here is that the Browns started off facing teams that are good or were playing very well. In games 4 through 6, they play only one good team, and the Steelers are not exactly playing well right now.

But good or bad opponent, Quinn was bad. After all, at the time of his benching, Quinn’s Rating was an absolutely abysmal 62.9. His yards per attempt was a pathetic 5.4. Anderson’s numbers, in recent history, are signficantly better. Right? Actually, over his last 15 games, Anderson’s Rating is 62.1. His yards per attempt is 5.6. So what gives? It seems that if Anderson could win any of these next three games (and he could), then so could Quinn.

The conspiracy theorist might think that Mangini could pull the QB switch, attribute the newfound turnaround (when the Browns inevitably win one or two of the next two games) to the shrewd roster move, and prove that Mangini really is not incompetent.

So there you have it. Two nice conspiracy theories as to why Quinn was benched. Of course, there are other less interesting reasons why Anderson got the nod, but it is far from clear that one or both these takes are far off the mark.

Howard Homers Twice, Joins Select Company

Howard Homers Twice, Joins Select Company

In his illustrious, Hall of Fame career, Mike Schmidt hit 548 home runs, which is likely more than Ryan Howard will ever hit. Schmidt never, however, hit 40 home runs in three consecutive seasons. In fact, he did it only three times in his career. Schmidt did drive in 100 or more runs nine times, but reached 120 just once (in his stellar MVP season of 1980, when for nearly two seasons, Schmidt was the best offensive player in the game).

Another Philadelphia great, Chuck Klein, also failed to top 40 home runs in three consecutive seasons (and hit 40 only twice, in 1929 and 1930). He drove in 100 runs for the Phillies five times, in consecutive seasons, and actually drove in at least 120 each time.

With his second home run tonight against the Braves, Howard’s totals for the season stand at 40 home runs and 121 RBI. In each of the past four seasons, Howard has hit at least 40 home runs and has driven in at least 120 runs. In other words, he has accomplished a feat of consistent power the likes of which no other Phillies’ player has accomplished. Four straight 40/120 seasons. For further perspective, consider that among the 25 members of the 500 Home Run Club, only two have matched the feat (Ken Griffey, Jr. and Sammy Sosa). And only Babe Ruth (7 times) has surpassed the feat.

No Chemistry in Cleveland

No Chemistry in Cleveland

In a recent article in the Akron Beacon Journal, Marla Ridenour wrote that Braylon Edwards, WR for the Cleveland Browns, has “no chemistry” with Brady Quinn and “doesn’t seem suited” for the West Coast brand of offense Quinn best lends himself to. It is difficult to take either claim seriously given the paucity of evidence offered in support.

Edwards caught just one pass for twelve yards in the first game of the season.

It is true that Ridenour countenances the facts that Edwards was thrown to three other times. On one pass, Edwards broke in while the pass went out toward the sideline. The result was an interception. A second pass was overthrown. A third was initially ruled a touchdown. Review showed that Edwards had not established his feet in bounds (a defensive pass interference penalty was assessed).

Fans simply should not be concerned at this point. Had Edwards made the catch, his 2 reception, 46 yards, and a TD would not have looked too shabby. Factor in his performance in other games with Quinn at the helm and Edwards and Quinn have had some degree of success. While Edwards grabbed just one ball (for fifteen yards) in Quinn’s debut last season, he came back the next with 8 grabs (tying a career high) for 104 yards. In the next game, Quinn hooked up with Edwards 4 times for 75 yards before Quinn left the game due to injury. So in four games with Quinn, Edwards has caught 14 passes for 206 yards. That is an average of 3.5 grabs and 51.5 yards per game. Last season, Edwards averaged 3.4 receptions, 54.6 yards per game, and scored three TDs.

In short, it is far from clear that Edwards would be posting more impressive numbers with anyone else at the helm. And the question of production is really at the heart of claims about “chemistry”. Quinn at QB is not the issue. The offense simply lacks the explosiveness it had two seasons ago, when Cleveland averaged 351 yards and 25 points per game. Edwards is still the team’s home run threat in the receiving game and should see ample opportunities in the near future.

Quinn and Anderson, by the Numbers

QUINN AND ANDERSON, BY THE NUMBERS

The following are the preseason data for Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson, who are competing for the starting QB spot for the Cleveland Browns.

DRIVE SUMMARIES Anderson has led 9 drives, consisting of 45 plays, covering 262 yards, and accounting for 16 points. His drives have averaged 5.8 yards per play. Quinn has also led 10 drives, consisting of 58 plays, covering 305 yards, and accounting for 13 points. His drives have averaged 5.3 yards per play. The commonsense view on the two QBs is that Anderson is a big play guy who will make plays with higher risk and higher reward. This has amounted to shorter drives (4.5 plays, 29.1 yards per drive), but a slightly higher average per play. Quinn’s West Coast attack has led to slightly longer drives (5.8 plays per drive, 30.5 yards per drive), and slightly fewer yards per play (5.3). The only difference in points is a missed field goal at the end of a Quinn drive.

BAD DRIVES Anderson led a 3-and-out and a two-play drive resulting in an interception in the first preseason game. He played well in game 2, including just one three-play drive where he failed to secure a first down as well as a four-play drive that netted just 11 yards (and ended in an INT). Quinn’s first drive in game 2 was one play, a third down on which he was sacked. His third drive was an 8-play drive, but covered just 16 yards and ended in a punt. In game three, Quinn’s first drive was a 3-and-out.

FORTUITOUS DRIVES Anderson led three scoring drives in game 2. One of them covered just 5 yards on 3 plays and resulted in a field goal. Quinn’s TD drive was just two plays and 34 yards thanks to a fumble on the kickoff return.

GOOD DRIVES Call any drive that covers at least 40 yards, spans 7 plays or more, and does not end in a TO a “good drive.” Quinn has led three good drives, in addition to his TD drive. Anderson has led two, in addition to a 56-yard drive that resulted in a FG.

UNDER CENTER Both QBs have had at least one good game and at least one questionable game. Anderson’s best game was his start, where he hit on 8 of 13 passes, covered 130 yards, and was not sacked. Quinn’s start in game three was the best either QB has had. He hit on 11 of 15 passes for 128 yards, tossed a TD, and did not turn the ball over. Anderson’s poor outing was a very brief one. He threw two passes, one of which was an INT and neither of which were completed. Quinn’s bad game came in limited time as well, but there he hit on 3 of 5 passes for 29 yards (although he lost 7 yards on a sack).

ACCURACY Anderson hit on at least 60% of his passes in two games and sits at 57.7% (15/26) through three games. His best numbers were 7 for 11 (63.6%) in game three. Quinn has hit on at least 60% of his passes in each of the three games, including 11 for 15 (73.3%) in game three. His completion percent is currently 67.7% (21/31).

YARDAGE Anderson has thrown for 207 yards on 26 attempts, including 130 on 13 attempts in game 2. He has averaged 8 yards per attempt and 13.8 per completion. Quinn has thrown for 225 yards on 31 attempts, including 128 on 15 attempts in game 3. He has averaged 7.3 yards per attempt and 10.7 per completion.

TDs to INTs Quinn and Anderson have combined for three INTs in 57 pass attempts, an INT% of 5.3, which is poor. Anderon is responsible for 2 in 26 attempts (7.7 INTs per 100 passes), while Quinn has 1 in 31 attempts (3.2 INTs per 100 passes). While Anderson has not yet hit on a TD pass, Quinn has a TD ratio identical to his INT ratio. Overall, the QBs have a TD ratio of just 1.7 per 100, which is terrible.

PASSER RATING Anderson’s rating sits at 51.3, while Quinn’s is 86.1. Anderson has been slightly uneven from game to game, thanks in large part to his 0.0 rating in the first game in limited time. He followed that up with a 63 and an 84. Of those, only the third game is a respectable number. Quinn opened the season with a 43, a very poor number, but bounced back to record a slightly subpar 76.3 and finish game three with a rating of 121.0.

Phils’ Staff Ace

STAFF (Season)
Games: 68
IP: 387 (5.69/game)
WHIP: 1.72 (666)
BAA: .290 (443/1526)
Quality Starts: 32
ERA: 5.23 (225)
Record: 23-18

Individual
Inning Pitched
Moyer 78.1
Blanton 76.2
Hamels 76.1
Myers 63.2
Happ 35.1
Park 33.1
Bastardo 19.0
Carpenter 4.1

WHIP
Bastardo 1.26 (24)
Myers 1.35 (86)
Hamels 1.36 (104)
Blanton 1.45 (111)
Happ 1.50 (53)
Moyer 1.52 (119)
Park 1.74 (58)
Carpenter 2.54 (11)

BAA
Bastardo .253 (19/75)
Happ .264 (34/129)
Myers .268 (66/246)
Blanton .282 (87/308)
Hamels .298 (90/302)
Park .308 (41/133)
Moyer .312 (98/314)
Carpenter .421 (8/19)

Quality Starts
Blanton 7 Hamels 7
Myers 6 Moyer 6
Happ 3
Park 2
Bastardo 1
Carpenter 0

ERA
Happ 4.08 (16)
Hamels 4.24 (36)
Myers 4.66 (33)
Bastardo 5.21 (11)
Blanton 5.28 (45)
Moyer 5.97 (52)
Park 7.29 (27)
Carpenter 10.38 (5)

Team Record
Carpenter 1-0
Park 5-2
Blanton 7-6 Hamels 7-6
Moyer 7-7 Myers 5-5 Happ 3-3 Bastardo 2-2

W/L Record
Happ 2-0 Carpenter 1-0
Hamels 4-3 Myers 4-3 Blanton 4-3
Bastardo 2-2 Park 1-1
Moyer 5-6

Complete Games
Hamels 1

OVERALL
Hamels 23.0: Since May: 57 Ks, 10 BB, 1 SHO, Phils are 6-3 in his starts.
Blanton 29.0: ERA by month – April 8.41, May 4.65, June 3.55
Myers 31.0: Had been leading team in nearly every category.
Happ 33.0: Has gone at least 5.1 innings in all six starts.
Bastardo 38.0: Good – 1.26 WHIP, .253 BAA; Bad – 5.21 ERA, 1 inning outing vs. Boston.
Moyer 43.0: Atrocious May (1-4, 8.01) followed by strong June (1-1, 4.32).
Park 45.5: His ship has sailed this season.
Carpenter 47.5: Has some time to think about his lone start.

Phils Fail to Impress

For seven innings the Phillies outdueled the Atlanta braves, 1-0. Unfortunately, those were the final seven innings. By the time those seven innings came around, the Braves had already hit three home runs, putting four runs on the board in the process. Certainly not the start Philadelphia fans were looking for.

Aside from early location problems, Brett Myers and the rest of the Phillies hurlers were impressive. Myers fanned 6, walked 1, and yielded two doubles and three singles in addition to the long balls. Newly-acquired Jack Taschner, Scott Eyre, Chad Durbin, and Brade Lidge combined to toss three perfect innings, while striking out four.

Unfortunately, the Philadelphia offense was unresponsive for most of the night. Showing impatience, the team fanned six times, managed two singles and two doubles, and just one walk. That is not to say that it was all their fault. Derek Lowe threw a remarkable game, showing incredible control of his curve and what looked to be a sinker. Too much movement in addition to the drop had several hitters looking foolish.

The Phils get a shot at revenge tomorrow, after a night off. Jamie Moyer, who was roughed up in spring training, will throw against Jair Jurrjens. Moyer, 46, is twice Jurrjen’s age.

Roster Experiments: Real Genius or Weird Science?

Roster Experiments: Real Genius or Weird Science?

Travis J. Rodgers

After the Los Angeles Lakers’ failure to capture the 2008 NBA title, fans turned immediately to consoling themselves with thoughts of the roster-that-could-be in 2008/2009. If the prospects of a lineup including Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum do not elicit a salivatory response in one, one just might not be a Lakers fan. Because that lineup is simply devastating, featuring four players capable of putting up twenty points with some regularity and two who can score thirty or more. And of course one of them is the greatest offensive weapon in the game. But fairy tales rarely contain more than a trace of reality. The preseason seems to suggest that the Frightening Five is not to be.

In the first place, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum have struggled to play together on the court effectively. It is not at all evident what the problem is, as Gasol has played a good deal of Power Forward in his career and has an effective jump shot while Bynum is a prototypical Center. Gasol’s finesse play would be backed by Bynum’s power game. Yet reports from Lakers camp are that the two on the court at once is not working so Bynum may be headed to the bench.

Second, Lamar Odom, who has played essentially every role on this team except Shooting Guard, showed up to camp out of basketball shape (perhaps more mentally than physically) and threw a fit when early indications pointed to his inability to play in the starting lineup. Rumors of his playing at Shooting Guard or even Point Guard have been tossed around. Most recently, he has shown signs of having come to terms with the possibility of being first off the bench.

So where does this all leave the Lakers’ rotation? If Bynum and Odom both move to the second unit, Fisher and Bryant would still man the back court, but there would be a considerable shakeup in the front court. Gasol would return to Center, where he was adept offensively for the Lakers last season. Trevor Ariza might slide into the starting Small Forward role by default as Sasha Vujacic’s avulsion fracture will keep him out of the bulk of preseason and prevent him from competing for a starting spot (should that happen, Bryant would slide to a slightly more effective Small Forward role). Vladimir Radmanovic would presumably be Phil Jackon’s top choice for starting Power Forward. Radmanovic, when playing his best, is a solid player in the mold of Peja Stojakovic and Hedo Turkoglu. He can do everything reasonable well, including defend when he puts his mind to it (in this sense, he is not as effective offensively as Peja but is superior defensively). Yet at his worst, he is a train wreck on the court.

So why is Radmanovic even in the running for a starting gig? If Jackson’s appreciation for offensive play borders on the obsessive, his ability to look past defensive inconsistencies and hope that some Zen spirit infuses the unit and brings it to a higher level borders on the obscene. So expect Radmanovic to start if Bynum and Odom are both pushed to the second unit. In such a situation, the sole response that would put LA in good shape on both sides of the ball would be to put Ariza at the Small Forward spot. His offensive game has some limitations, notably in terms of ball handling and distance shooting, but with Fisher, Bryant, and Gasol on the court, the Lakers would still fare reasonably well in those categories. The lack of a true Point Guard did not hurt LA except possibly for the NBA Finals. Bryant’s ability to create a shot off the dribble would be augmented by Ariza’s, who is arguably the second most skilled (although Jordan Farmar certainly makes a strong case) on the team at creating in such conditions. Vlad’s weak defense can be concealed by Ariza’s tough-minded approach and there is always the Jacksonian hope that feeding a player’s offensive game will spill over into his defensive efforts. So perhaps things will work out. Imagine if they do.

LA’s starting five would still be one of the best in the game, but when it comes to second units, imagine a team trying to compete with Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum. Or perhaps it would be Walton out and Josh Powell in, with Odom sliding to the Small Forward spot. At any rate, no team in the NBA can compete with that. Perhaps that is the fantasy Jackson has. Now for the serious problem.

Basketball players are not chess pieces. You cannot manipulate them around the depth chart like pawns on the board. Even if he plays thirty or more minutes per game in Jackson’s plans, Odom may not respond psychologically to the demotion from the starting lineup. And after the season Andrew Bynum was having until his injury, and given how hard he worked during the offseason, his plans were not to serve as backup. As a young player eyeing a big contract, the stress on Bynum is already considerable. Struggling to find regular heavy minutes in Jackon’s often inconsistent substitution plans may take their toll. And this is all assuming things go swimmingly in the starting lineup. If not, further shakeups will be necessitated.

So while there have been numerous defining moments in Phil Jackson’s career, it is unclear that there has ever been a more monumental test looming for his skill at manipulation. Hailed as the Zen Master, Jackson has battled to fit together jagged-edged egos into a seamless puzzle. Perhaps he has always succeeded in the past, but this season may pose the greatest test yet. Whether Jackson will be remembered ultimately as a cool and calculating genius or a mystical eccentric could be determined over the next few months.

http://rodgersreport.wordpress.com

Good Outweighing Bad for Phillies

In Game One of the NLCS, the Phillies’ potent offense managed just seven hits and one walk. Of those hits, five were singles. They hit into two double plays. Leadoff man Jimmy Rollins left three runners on base. The top four in the batting order combined to get on base 2 of 16 times (.125 OBP). Yet they overcame. The two extra base hits were both home runs. That coupled with an error gave the Phillies three runs. In light of Cole Hamels’s seven innings of two-run ball and Ryan Madson’s and Brad Lidge’s shutout innings, the Phillies picked up the win.

Game two saw Brett Myers get beaten up. In five innings, he allowed ten base runners, a double, a home run, and five runs. Greg Dobbs added an error. Phillies batters left fourteen runners on base. But the redemption began with Brett Myers, whose hitting line looked more like a Chase Utley game: 3 for 3, 2 runs, 3 RBI. Shane Victorino added 4 RBI, including three on a bases-clearing triple. The Phillies pounded out eleven hits and eyed their way to seven walks. They escaped with a three-run victory.

Not everything in the current NLCS has gone swimmingly for the Phillies, as their starting pitchers have given up seven runs in twelve innings (5.25 ERA). Yet so far nothing has ultimately hurt them. Every miscue has been followed by an all-things-considered positive. The bullpen has shut out the Dodgers in six innings. The offense has put 26 runners on base through two games, has produced nine earned runs and two unearned. And aside from Brett Myers’s performance, Phillies hurlers have yielded two earned runs in thirteen innings (1.39 ERA).

In short, the trip to Philadelphia has been a success at the bottom line. It is easy to forget all the other numbers so far, just as the Phillies have shrugged off the error, the subpar outing of Myers, the stranded runners. The most important number at present is: 2-0, the series standing, in favor of the Phillies. Now things shift as the teams head to California. The Dodgers have beaten the Phillies in all four games in LA during the regular season. With the next three games to be played in foreign environs, Philadelphia fans should be concerned. A single loss or perhaps two can be tolerated, but if the Phillies are two win this series, they cannot leave things to be settled in the final two games that are to be played back in Philadelphia. This is why game three is so important. Down three, even at home, the Dodgers would have to feel as if they are incredibly vulnerable. A win for the Dodgers, meanwhile, would be business as usual. The Phillies would be 6-0 at home in the series while the Dodgers would be 5-0. Parity would reign and game four would be just another game.

Who said the final games of the series are the most exciting?

Ariza’s Shot

Ariza’s Shot

Recent rumblings have suggested that the LA Lakers are toying with the idea of sending starting Power Forward Lamar Odom to the bench. There are several considerations that recommend this move, but probably the biggest issue would be deciding who would start in Odom’s spot. The move with the highest potential payoff is promoting Trevor Ariza to the starting lineup. This move, however, is fraught with risk.

Lamar Odom came to Los Angeles for the 2004/05 season in the deal that sent out Shaquille O’Neal. He has played in more than 250 games since joining the Lakers, playing either Forward spot, initiating the offense on occasion, and filling in as the biggest man on the court in rare instances as well. But Odom’s willingness to play whatever spot the Lakers have asked him to is too frequently outweighed by his unwillingness (or inability depending upon whom you ask) to remain aggressive as a scoring option. With limited shooting from distance, and two behemoths manning the 4 and 5 spots for the upcoming season, Odom’s lack of aggressiveness could force management’s hand. He simply lacks a skill set that will allow a Small Forward to thrive in the current Lakers’ lineup.

This is precisely where Trevor Ariza becomes intriguing. While Ariza is not much of an outside shooter, a casual fan may not have noticed that in more than 200 games in his career prior to coming to LA, Ariza hit just four three-point shots in 28 attempts. This amounts to an incredibly poor percentage (14%) and an incredibly low shooting rate (1 per 134 minutes of game play). Meanwhile, Ariza hit 5 of 15 shots from the arc with the Lakers. That’s 33% and one shot per 29 minutes. These numbers come in a very limited sample size, but it is suggestive of Ariza’s willingness to make his game more dynamic and fit the team around him. Apart from an otherwise unremarkable jump shot, Ariza is an efficient offensive player, who shot 52% from the floor largely on slashing moves to the hoop. A solid rebounder despite his lack of bulk, Ariza also uses his length to benefit in passing situations. His ast/to ratio (nearly 2:1) was just slightly better than Odom’s, who, while touted as a skilled passer, is a poor decision-maker. So Ariza’s offensive game is at least adequate and arguably better suited for this team’s needs than Odom.

Ariza also adds increased ability on the defensive side of the ball. Odom is probably twenty pounds heavier, but Ariza is much more agile, uses his length better, and invests much more pride on defense. None of this is to say that Odom is a poor defender. He has been shoddy at times, but for significant stretches last season he was above average. Ariza’s talent lies in the fact that he has relishes the role of being employed to cover opposing teams’ best players. He is a timely shot blocker, an adept ball thief, and plays with full intensity. While fans frequently complain about Odom’s “coasting,” that label is wholly inappropriate for Ariza, who plays all out.

So where is the risk in moving Odom to the bench? His scoring, assuming he is not considered a first or second option, and rebounding would energize a second unit. There is, however, always a risk to moving a player from the starting lineup to the bench. Consider Luke Walton. It may be said that he played so well as he did in 06/07 because he was in a contract season. That is true. On the other hand, it could be said that the move from being a starter in 06/07 (he started all 65 games he appeared in during 06/07) to losing the starting spot accounted for his epic decline. Walton shot 2.4% worse on FGs, 5.4% worse on threes, and 3.9% worse on FTs, and was roundly criticized by LA faithful. With this in mind, the consequences of sending Odom to the bench must be considered. Playing as he does currently, he would be a huge lift to the second unit. Playing even more inefficiently, Odom would be an incredibly pricey disaster.

There is one further risk: Ariza’s health. In four seasons, Ariza has averaged 56 games per season. Over the past three seasons, that average falls to 50. He has not appeared in more than 60 games since his rookie season and appeared in just 35 last season. Questions about a congenital defect in his foot, the same foot that caused him to miss three months last year, linger and make the likelihood of his appearing in a full season a slender hope. Add in increased minutes that come along with starting (he has averaged 18 minutes per game in his career) and the odds of a breakdown must be countenanced.

As with any roster tinkering, the pros and cons of moving Odom out of the starting lineup must be weighed heavily before committing to a move. He may not work out. And if he does not, consider Ariza the best fit given the surrounding team’s skills and skill gaps. The potential reward is huge: Phil Jackson would have his Doberman on defense, a solid rebounder, a good slasher, and a fiery competitor. Next to Kobe Bryant, and with Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol in the low post and veteran sniper Derek Fisher at the Point, the Lakers could be significantly better than they were last season. Yet for all Ariza’s potential as a difference-maker, the risk factor remains quite high.

Hamels Approaches Legendary Status

Hamels Approaches Legendary Status

He may not have the best numbers in the bigs and he may not sniff any of Philadelphia’s single season marks, but if Cole Hamels can bring his best stuff over his final three or four starts, he could propel the Phils to the postseason and claim a spot in Philadelphia lore. Think along the lines of Rocky. This is all contingent, of course, upon Hamels’s continued dominance, but his dominance will not be sufficient. Other pitchers will have to continue to step up (as Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer have) and the offense will have to deliver (as Howard, Utley, and Rollins have down the stretch).

It is easy to question whether the fans’ infatuation with Hamels is merely the result of a city starved for success in baseball, but a quick look at some numbers shows that a postseason appearance for the Phils would make the current team one of the best in the long history of Philadelphia baseball. Similarly, a quick look at Hamels’s numbers shows that this could be one of the most impressive seasons for a Philadelphia hurler in quite some time. His key numbers are currently 208 innings pitched, 180 Ks, and a 3.12 ERA.

No Phillies starter has posted an ERA that low in the past decade. One would have to look back to 1997, to when Curt Schilling posted an awesome 2.97 to find a better mark. The strikeouts are nearly as impressive, with just Brett Myers (208 in ‘05 and 189 in ‘06) and Robert Person (183 in ‘01) topping Hamels’s current mark. If Cole continues his pace, he will post another 18-24 Ks, putting him right around the 200 K mark. And while several Philadelphia starters have hit 200 innings in the past decade, Hamels is likely to top them all: Kevin Millwood (222 in ‘03), John Lieber (218.1 in ‘05), Myers (215.1 in ‘05), Rand Wolf (210.2 in ‘02), Vincente Padilla (208.2 in ‘02), and Robert Person (208.1 in ‘01).

So at present, Hamels projects to about 229 IP, 198 Ks, 3.12 ERA, and perhaps 14 wins. It would be, I suggest, the best season by a Phillies starter since Curt Schilling’s amazing 1998 campaign that saw him fan 300 batters in 268.2 innings, post a 3.25 ERA, but struggle in the W/L column to the tune of a 15-14 record (reminiscent of Hamels’s 12-9 mark this season). So statistically he is legitimate.

But greatness is not just about individual achievement. Fortunately, the current team is in the midst of a sustained streak of success. Barring an absolutely catastrophic collapse, the Phillies will finish above the .500 mark this season. That would mark the sixth consecutive season the mark has been surpassed. The franchise has accomplished this in just two other stretches before, from 1962-1967 and from 1975-1984. Fans will immediately note that the 1980 World Series Champions are included in the more recent streak.

Just as individual merit does not secure one’s legacy, nor does simply winning half of your team’s games. After two near trips to the playoffs, the Phillies finally made it last season. An appearance this season would make it back-to-back for the first time since a five-year span from 1976 to 1981. Again the 1980 World Series team is included in that streak. The Phillies have never accomplished the feat before or since that streak, putting this season’s group in rare company.

One may argue that members of the 1993 World Series team have also reached legendary status in team history. That is certainly true of players like John Kruk, Darren Daulton, Len Dykstra, and probably true of pitchers Curt Schilling, Terry Mulholland, and Tommy Greene. But that team was an anomaly. The Phils were sub .500 for six seasons prior and seven after the fact. And one-year success is less desirable than sustained success.

Still, before the Phils can start worrying about their postseason performance, they must secure a spot. Back 3.0 games with 15 to go, they will probably have to win at least 9 of the remaining games (and probably more like 11). With Hamels taking the mound in about an hour and a double-header tomorrow, the victories have to come soon and regularly. All eyes are on Hamels.

Travis J. Rodgers

travisjrodgers at Gmail.