NBA Rodgers Ratings (Jan. 14)

Through games on Jan 13th

1. Philadelphia
2. Chicago
3. Atlanta (this will likely change)
4. Miami
5. Denver
6. OKC
7. Los Angeles Lakers
8. Orlando
9. San Antonio
10. Indiana
11. Portland
12. Los Angeles Clippers
13. Dallas
14. Cleveland
15. New York Knicks
16. Utah
17. Minnesota
18. Memphis
19. Houston
20. Phoenix
21. Boston
22. Milwaukee
23. Golden State
24. New Orleans
25. Toronto
26-t. New Jersey/Sacramento
28. Washington
29. Detroit
30. Charlotte

On the Rise
Dallas and the Knicks both rose 7 spots.

Falling

Toronto fell 8 places; Boston and Phoenix fell 6 each

Bynum: Growing Legend

Bynum: Growing Legend
Andrew Bynum has played nearly 300 games over five seasons for the Los Angeles Lakers. He has won a title, has a massive contract, and has been garnering attention as a potential perennial All-Start. Yet he has not put together a complete season in the NBA. After a big Game 5 against the Thunder, things could change.

As a rookie, Bynum played sparingly, averaging 1.6 points, 1.7 boards, and shooting just 40%. His playoff experience was limited to two minutes in a blowout elimination loss. He missed his only shot. Typical production from a Phil Jackson-coached rookie, to be sure, but just as surely, it was unfulfilling for Bynum.

Bynum’s second season saw a complete regular season (82 games) with averages of 7.8 points and 5.9 boards, on 56% shooting. Huge strides from season one. The postseason was a huge disappointment, however, as Bynum averaged just 11 minutes per game, averaged 4 points, 4.6 boards, and played more than 15 minutes just once (in a blowout loss). Regular season progress is great, but the Lakers measure success in terms of banners, and in terms of the effort required to raise it to the rafters.

The 2007-08 season was Bynum’s regular season breakout. He nearly doubled his averages from the previous season, in just seven more minutes per contest. He averaged a double double with 13.1 points, 10.2 boards, and shot a ridiculous 64% from the field. Coming off a monstrous 25-point, 17-rebound performance against the Bucks, Bynum was injured, narrowly missing a double double against the Grizzlies. More disappointingly, the injury forced Bynum to miss the remainder of the regular season and the duration of the playoffs, which included a blowout elimination loss against the Celtics. LA fans finally witnessed what the giant was capable of, but they were denied seeing it at the highest stage.

Last season, Bynum averaged 14.3 points and 8.0 rebounds, shot 56%, and again missed significant regular season time. He returned, however, for the playoffs, but was clearly not the player who had averaged roughly a double double for the past two seasons. Limited by injuries, conditioning, and foul concerns, averaged 17.4 minutes, 6.3 points, 3.7 boards, and shot 46%. Bynum scored in double figures five times, topping out at 14. He walked away with a ring, but he had to be disappointed by his inability to put together a successful regular season with a successful postseason.

This regular season saw Bynum’s highest scoring average, at 15 per contest. He added 8.3 boards and shot 57%. Despite missing 17 games, Bynum established career highs in minutes, points, and rebounds. Then the postseason came. Lakers fans may be surprised to know that Bynum had zero postseason double doubles entering the series against Oklahoma City. He now has four in five games, including a 21-point, 11-rebound effort in Game 5. As things stand, Bynum is averaging 30.2 minutes, 13.2 points, 10.0 boards, and is shooting 58%. The postseason has already been Bynum’s best overall. This could be the arrival of the beast Lakers fans have been waiting for since The Big Aristotle went MIA. A double double average in the playoffs from a young seven foot center plus a championship could go a long way toward making Buss feel good about the millions he has invested in this team. And it could certainly make the Lakers faithful forget that other guy.

Wannabes (All-Star Break)

A look at the nine teams in the NBA most likely to come away as champions.

Rank/Projected Record/Rank last week

9. San Antonio Spurs (47-35): Last time: 9th
Three nights after losing to the Lakers minus Kobe Bryant, the Spurs beat Denver without Tony Parker. The results do not obviously add up, but what has for the Spurs this season? They are the least potent team among the elite teams, are likely to be bumped out by the Thunder, and are barely a .500 team when at full strength. It looks like the Richard Jefferson acquisition has been a lateral move at best.
Chances of winning: 1.8%

8. Dallas Mavericks (48-34): Last time: 7th
Dallas beat the Warriors again, but were destroyed by the Nuggets. The Mavs have been able to keep their record agaisnt playoff and top ten teams at better than .500, which is good. They are playing poorly overall of late, however, losing six of ten, and do not seem like a legitimate contender at this point. Meanwhile, trade rumors haunt the team.
Chances of winning: 4.5%

7. Boston Celtics (51-31): Last time: 8th
The Celtics were worked over by the Magic and then lost to the Hornets. While Boston has a very good record when they are at full strength, they have the second worst overall record against top ten teams. At full strength, they surely can advance to the second round, but they have lacked the knockout ability against elite teams. Their championship odds seem bleak, and Rasheed Wallace has not obviously helped them.
Chances of winning: 5.0%

6. Atlanta Hawks (53-31): Last time: 6th
The Hawks earned a split in their games this week, working Memphis but getting obliterated by Miami. As both opponents are borderline playoff teams, you see Atlanta revealing part of their nature here. While Atlanta has won more than half of their games against playoff teams, their win percentage against elite teams is now just 41%. Both the Magic and Cavs are elite teams, so the road to the Finals looks tough for Atlanta.
Chances of winning: 6.0%

5. Utah Jazz (54-28): Last time: 4th
Utah took the Wannabe list by storm, rising to #4 last week. Their lengthy win streak was extended against the Clippers, but the Bryantless Lakers beat the Jazz on their home court in humbling fashion. The Jazz are still playing well, are still a very good home team, and have done well against playoff teams. They have not done so well against elite teams, however, and are not elite among full strength teams.
Chances of winning: 8.3%

4. Orlando Magic (55-27): Last time: 5th
The Magic are looking more and more like the team that earned a trip to the Final last season. In fact, they were looking quite dominant until they ran into the Cavaliers. As it stands, Orlando is able to win against all teams, regardless of skill level, is playing well of late, and has a great shot at the ECF. Remember: most people (myself excluded) thought the Cavs would walk over the Magic and into the Finals. So things look eerily similar to last year in the East.
Chances of winning: 9.4%

3. Denver Nuggets (54-28): Last time: 2nd
After breaking the Lakers’ backs (with Kobe and without Carmelo), the Nuggets dropped two of three against Western Conference powers. In fact, they lost even when Anthony returned to the lineup. Denver is still the best in the West against playoff and elite teams, but they are a step behind the Lakers overall. It is worth keeping an eye on how the team shapes up as Anthony works back into a groove.
Chances of winning: 14.5%

2. Los Angeles Lakers (63-19): Last time: 3rd
Bryant went down and the other Lakers rose to the challenge, issuing beatdowns to three Western Conference playoff teams. Still the best team when at full strength, the Lakers showed they can do it without Bryant, even against good competition. Los Angeles is now in the top three in all indices that determine these rankings, sporting a 60%+ win percent against playoff and elite teams. The Ron Artest Experiment receives a tentative passing grade because even with Artest struggling with injuries before the Break, the Lakers are 41-13 (compared to 44-10 last season at this point).
Chances of winning: 19.0%

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (67-15): Last time: 1st
Cleveland protects their #1 standing. They have a 13-game winning streak, the likely MVP, the best record against elite and playoff teams, the second best record at full strength, and the best record in the NBA. It would be criminal not to have them at #1. Shaq makes this team a better championship team. He doesn’t make it any worse during the regular season either (Cleveland finished 66-16 last season).
Chances of winning: 31.6%

Travis Rodgers

Wannabes: Top Nine NBA Title Threats (Part III)

Ranking. TEAM (Projected Record): Ranking last blog.

9. San Antonio Spurs (48-34): Last time: 9th

San Antonio faced two teams with >.500 records and two with sub .500 records in their last four. Continuing a season long trend, they beat the two bad teams and lost to the two good teams. With the worst record against top ten teams and against playoff teams generally, the Spurs have not been competing at the highest level. Their record when at full strength is only slightly above .500. That’s why they are in 9th place.

Chances of winning: 1.3%

8. Boston Celtics (53-29): Last time: 8th

Three straight wins for the Celtics look nice on paper and probably give them some confidence going into a showdown against the Magic today. Still, apart from their top-3 record when at full strength, they have not been able to do anything against top teams, opponents against whom they have a win% of 30. A win over Orlando would go some ways toward letting them leapfrog the Magic.

Chances of winning: 4.3%

7. Dallas Mavericks (50-32): Last time: 7th

Their last three opponents are 53-90. Yet Dallas lost two of those games. The Mavs continue to win just enough games to finish with a nice playoff position and a decent shot at the second round. That is really all they can say for themselves at this point.

Chances of winning: 5.4%

6. Atlanta Hawks (53-31): Last time: 4th

Atlanta’s ego took a bit of a hit with a loss to the Thunder (who will be on this list next week if they continue to play as they have been). They gained a measure of revenge by beating two decent but sub .500 teams in the Clippers and Bulls. The Hawks do not excel in any area, but they are consistently average to above average as far as the Wannabes go. At present, they are neck and neck with Orlando and Boston in the East.

Chances of winning: 7.5%

5. Orlando Magic (55-27): Last time: 6th

The Magic have won seven of their last ten, had a nice streak going before Caron Butler hit a jumper to sink them. Orlando may be turning it on at just the right time. A win over Boston would secure their standing as second best in the East, possibly paving the way for an ECF rematch against the Cavaliers.

Chances of winning: 9.0%

4. Utah Jazz (53-29): Last time: 5th

Two weeks ago the Jazz were not among the Wannabes. Now they are knocking at the door to the top three. Their last three wins have all been against Western Conference teams with at least 29 wins. They have won 55% of their games against top ten teams (3rd best among Wannabes), and they have beaten the Lakers and Nuggets this season. Circle February 10th on your calendars. The Lakers will be in Utah. A win for the Jazz would be a further testament to their home court dominance and their deadliness in the playoffs.

Chances of winning: 11.8%

3. Los Angeles Lakers (61-21): Last time: 3rd

Kobe has finally taken a game off, but the Lakers smashed Portland in Portland, for the first time in a long while. A big loss to the Nuggets and a surprising loss to the Grizzlies reveal that the Lakers are lacking consistency. Their next two games see them facing the Spurs and Jazz, with their top4 records against top10 and playoff teams on the line.

Chances of winning: 12.5%

2. Denver Nuggets (55-27): Last time: 1st

Without Carmelo Anthony the Nuggets humiliated the Lakers. Yet that win was sandwiched between losses to the Sun and Jazz. Now both those teams will probably make the playoffs, but it does not remove the fact that Denver is playing inconsistently without their leading man. Still the owners of the best record against top10 teams, the Nuggets handed the best record against playoff teams to the Cavaliers. In fact, they handed something else over to the Cavs as well.

Chances of winning: 18.9%

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (67-15): Last time: 2nd

No one is playing better than the Cavs right now. It’s true that Memphis is the only .500 or better team the Cavs have played since January 23rd, but the Cavs have won 11 straight, own the best record against playoff teams, and are top3 in all Wannabe categories. February 11th will see the Cavs facing the Magic. That game will be telling, as the Cavs have beaten up on softies of late while the Magic have been doing battle against very good teams.

Chances of winning: 29.2%

Numbers Highlight Artest’s Contributions

Numbers Highlight Artest’s Contributions

Travis J. Rodgers

It is easy to look at Ron Artest’s offensive numbers and not be terribly impressed. The 12 points per game is the lowest average the Lakers’ offseason acquisition has posted since the 01/02 season. Moreover, his free throw percentage (57%) and steals per game (1.4) are the worst of his career. Decent rebounding and a career-high assist rate save the stat line, but certainly fail to make the numbers leap out at the reader.

 

Defensively, however, Artest’s impact is evident both on the court and in the (extended) box score. On November 1^st, after Joe Johnson started out on a tear, scoring 18 points (on 7 for 8 shooting) in the first quarter, Artest took the initiative, switching defensive assignments with Kobe. With Artest applying smothering defense, Johnson hit just 1 of the 8 shots he took the rest of the way. No individual player has really gotten to the Lakers offensively, with Kevin Durant’s 28 points, which represent a season high for an opponent against the Lakers, coming on 24 shots.

 

Artest has embraced the role of defender first, deferring to his teammates offensively (his shots per minute rate–at .27– is significantly lower than his career average of .38). In this role, he has held opposing Small Forwards to 33.1 eFG%, has forced a 1:1 ast/to ratio, and has surrendered just 16.5 points per 48 minutes. His opponent has put up an 8.6 PER. This has helped the Lakers maintain a +7.3 PER advantage over opposing SFs (second best positional advantage behind +9.9 at Shooting Guard). By contrast, last season, opposing SFs averaged 48.6 eFG%, posted a 3.6/2.8 ast/to ratio, averaged 20.7 points per 48 minutes, and finished with a 14.9 PER. While these numbers are all solid to good, Artest’s defensive performance has been downright dominant. And it appears as if the mindset is contagious.

 

As a team, the Lakers have allowed only two opponents to reach 100 points on the season, and are allowing an average of 96.5 over their last four games. Their points allowed now stand at 97.4 (this, with two games that have gone to overtime), 11th best in the NBA. The Lakers have held their opponents to poor shooting percentages as well. They are currently 7th best in FG% allowed (43.2), 5th best in 3pt% allowed (30.2), and have created the 4th most TO (17.0). So far Artest looks to be leading by example. And that is good in Los Angeles.

 

*PER, eFG, and positional stats courtesy of 82games.com

**Team statistics courtesy of Yahoo! sports

LA Lakers Season Prospectus (1 of 3)

LA Lakers Season Prospectus
The Lakers look to begin the defense of their title in less than a week. Before the Finals, however, are the playoffs. And before the playoffs is the grind of an 82-game season. What happens during those 82 games is often a cloudy matter, a crisscrossed pattern of variables. So what follows is one man’s attempt to shed some light into the gloom: a list of players, divided into three tiers [first one only right now], featuring stat projections and notes about player development.

THE STARTING FIVE
Derek Fisher – Point Guard
Last season, Fisher did much of what was expected from him. Very nice numbers from the arc, the charity stripe, and in terms of taking care of the ball were set against a subpar overall shooting percent and shoddy defensive results. Last season looked to be Fisher’s final as the starter in Los Angeles. He has once again earned that distinction, however, and enters the regular season as the main man. His minute should dip to his lowest in years, and he may lose his starting job at some point, but he will be a big part of this club.
2008/09 Projections: 10.7 ppg, 3.0 apg, 2.3 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 9.9 ppg, 3.2 apg, 2.3 rpg
Accuracy: 95%
2009/10 Projections: 80 games, 26.5 minutes, 8.5 points, 3.0 assists, 2.1 rebounds

Kobe Bryant – Shooting Guard
Kobe did essentially what all fans thought he would. He tightened up his game, spent a bit more time on the defensive end, improved his ast/to ratio, and obliterated any memory of the suggestion that he cannot make his teammates better. Bryant is now 31 years old, sporting a ton of mileage, but he is in fantastic shape. The ball should be in his hands a bit less this year, allowing him to devote more time to moving without the ball, defending, and rebounding. One question mark will be Kobe’s outside shooting, which is something he has struggled to do well when catching and shooting, as opposed to working for his own shot.
2008/09 Projections: 26.5 ppg, 5.2 apg, 5.9 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 26.8 ppg, 4.9 apg, 5.2 rpg
Accuracy: 94%
2009/10 Projections: 80 games, 37.3 minutes, 26.5 points, 4.9 assists, 5.7 rebounds

Ron Artest – Small Forward
Artest brings an intriguing mix of skills to the Lakers’ starting lineup. He can defend, shoot from distance, drive to the rim, rebound, pass, and dribble. Historically, he has struggled in terms of shot selection and keeping his cool. Throughout the preseason, it seems he has had difficulties picking times to be aggressive. Artest makes the Lakers a formidable defensive team, but his impact on the offense is every bit as important. He may be more a distributor and open-three sniper than he has in years past.

2009/10 Projections: 65 games, 36.7 minutes, 16.3 points, 3.9 assists, 5.5 rebounds

Pau Gasol – Power Forward
Gasol has truly defied expectations since coming to the Lakers. The first question was whether he would be able to be a scoring force on fewer looks. He has, by increasing his FG% from 51% before coming to LA to 59% and 57%, respectively, in his two seasons in LA. After his rebounds dipped to a dangerously low level for a Power Forward, Gasol showed dominant rebounding last season, posting the second highest total of his career, and averaging nearly a double double. A cause for concern, however, is Gasol’s lack of rest of late. Since a long playoff run two seasons ago, the Olympics, another long season, and playing for his home country during the offseason, Gasol has shown signs of wear. A hamstring injury currently has his status in doubt for the first game of the regular season.
2008/09 Projections: 18.6 points, 3.3 assists, 7.4 rebounds

2008/09 Actual: 18.9 points, 3.5 assists, 9.6 rebounds

Accuracy: 90%
2009/10 Projections: 73 games, 36.5 minutes, 19.0 points, 4.0 assists, 9.4 rebounds

Andrew Bynum – Center
While Bynum has put to bed any fears that he is a bust, he has struggled to answer other charges, including his history of injuries and his love of offense and seeming disinterest toward rebound and defense. He could simply take or leave a good night on the glass so long as he gets his touches. That could be a problem going forward. But after tying for the team lead in scoring during the preseason, and towering over most opposition, Bynum’s offensive prowess is going to push those questions to the back of people’s minds, at least for some time.
2008/09 Projections: 13.4 ppg, 1.8 apg, 9.8 rpg
2008/09 Actual: 14.3 ppg, 1.4 apg, 8.0 rpg
Accuracy: 84%
2009/10 Projections: 63 games, 29.5 minutes, 15.1 points, 1.3 assists, 8.1 rebounds

Unfinished Business in La-La Land

<b>UNFINISHED BUSINESS IN LA-LA LAND</b>

After winning the NBA title, the Lakers faced the possible loss of four players. Two of these issues have been resolved: Kobe Bryant decided not to exercise his early termination option and Trevor Ariza went to Houston. Two more are outstanding: Lamar Odom is eyeing a contract in the neighborhood of $9m per season and Shannon Brown’s status is at present unknown. He is either a restricted free agent (in which case the Lakers have the opportunity to match any offer sheet he receives) or an unrestricted free agent (in which case the Lakers lack that option). One of the biggest splashes in the Free Agency Period came when once Defensive Player of the Year Ron Artest decided to join the Lakers. This move compensates for Ariza’s exodus. If the goal is another championship, however, the Lakers cannot be finished making moves.

<b>Priority: Re-sign Lamar Odom.</b> Yes, he is inconsistent. Yes, he has had some injury concerns (although they seem to be a thing of the past). The fact is that Odom is able to play the 2, 3, or 4, and can guard the 1 (depending on the 1) through 4. That is a skill set that is difficult to find in itself. On top of that, he is a dominant rebounder, a respectable scorer, a very good passer, and developed an intermittent stroke from distance late last season. He is in his prime and must be re-signed. Quite simply, without Odom, the Lakers would lack the depth necessary to win another title.

<b>Potential Solution:</b> Short of Lamar Odom, there are not many reasonable options for the Lakers. In-house “options” include Luke Walton and Adam Morrison. While Walton brings a lesser degree of most the skills Odom possesses, the dropoff from Odom to Walton in terms of athleticism and consistency is troubling. Adam Morrison, when he grows up, wants to be Luke Walton with better shooting ability. Barring borderline supernatural progress in the Summer League, Morrison figures to wear a suit and tie for most of next season. Free Agent options include Grant Hill, a fantastic fit for the triangle, but a poor shooter from beyond the arc. Pay attention to the difference between Odom’s career (31%) and last season (32%) three-point accuracy and Grant Hill’s (28% and 32%, respectively). The difference is not huge, but it is part of a larger puzzle. Remember: the Lakers sacrificed Vladimir Radmanovic (38% career, 41% for the Lakers last season) and Trevor Ariza (30% career, 32% last season, and 48% in the playoffs).

<b>Second: More bigs.</b> The Lakers must find a way to develop a reliable backup Center. Of course, the team’s flexibility allows Gasol to shift to the 5, Odom to enter the starting lineup at the 4, Artest at the 3, and Kobe at the 2; but lest we get ahead of ourselves, there really is no backup for Pau if Bynum is out for whatever reason (fouls or injuries; take your pick). DJ Mbenga may be a stopgap, but unless he develops an offensive game, he is nothing more.

<b>Potential Solution:</b> No idea, to be honest. There are some veteran bigs available who are intriguing (Rasheed Wallace, for instance). Yet there is no obvious fit as there was in the case of bringing aboard Artest. Inviting Sheed to join forces with Artest might be a foolhardy move, given the volatile situation that would create. Perhaps the Lakers will tempt fate and run with minimal Center depth. Perhaps someone will step up during the Summer.

<b>Third: Groom a point guard for the future.</b> Derek Fisher is perhaps the point guard of the present. He is aging, and looked awkward for a good part of the late regular season, but he straightened things out just in time. Jordan Farmar is inconsistent and has not shown the progress one would like to see from him. In short, there is no compelling reason to think that he is the point guard of the future. Interestingly, Shannon Brown is probably most what Phil Jackson is looking for in an initiator. Unfortunately, he is a free agent about whose status we have heard very little.

<b>Potential Solutions:</b> The Lakers appear to be enamored of Nate Robinson. It is unclear what sort of deal could land Robinson, but although not a pure Point, he is a solid shooter (44-33-84 last season) whose only bad number is 5 feet, 9 inches.

Did Bynum Foul Out?

During the Lakers vs. Jazz game Thursday evening (game 3), Andrew Bynum found himself in foul trouble early. He had three fouls at the half, in only 4 or 5 minutes. He picked up a quick foul later in the third, and then another. TNT showed a graphic that stated “Fouled out – 4 points”.  But it’s not clear that he did foul out. That would be a strange wrinkle if it is in fact true.